Listed under the 2nd Tampa sheet for the day, the Tampa Bay Downs Handicapper is available free exclusively for BetPTC members. Around for over a decade, TBH sheet is a product that is based on John Barile's comprehensive trainer database for the Florida track. The TBH is usually up by 10:00am ET.
Here is a little introduction on the product:
Introduction to Multiple Angle Trainer Profiling (MATP)
After many years as a student of John Whitaker, the “Father of Trainer Profiling” and the author of “Handicapping Trainers”, and in the course of maintaining my trainer records in spreadsheets, I accidentally observed that, for most trainers, certain combinations of angles (or characteristics) appeared to have extraordinarily high strike rates, well above their ordinary strike rates for Win and ITM and often at long prices.
These nuanced MATPs are not readily discernible looking at the past performances, as those only show percentages for Win and ITM for individual angles (and a limited number of angles at that).
Many of these remarkable multiple angle winning stats have had sticking power at Tampa (the only track I handicap), persisting for 10 years or longer for their respective conditioners. Obviously, I would prefer an MATP that has a 40% strike rate for Win from a sample of 200 events over one with just 30 events, but I have found success with sample sizes that many “statistics” folks would frown upon, essentially because the stat heads don’t get that a trainer that makes 100 starts at each meeting, may only be able to attempt to execute on one of his/her winning MATP angles perhaps 30 or 40 times in three, four or even five meetings.
Naturally, there will be races in which several trainers have strong MATPs and that often presents a dilemma. Additionally, there are usually trainers entered for whom we have no profile, leaving us looking elsewhere for insights into what they are likely to do today. The very best plays will be in races where one trainer has an outstanding MATP angle and the rest do not, or may even be displaying “weakness” MATP angles (we track those as well).
Also note, MATPs work best with horses that have already done what is being asked of them today.
I have also included my Trainer Profile Codes for your edification, so that when you see me referring to an L1-3 + S + UC + TtoD angle, you won’t be left scratching your head.
I will be referring to my homemade Quirin speed numbers, and I utilize a variety of other conventional handicapping methods which will all be very familiar to you.
Good luck and good racing!
Explanation of Trainer Profile Codes
FTS First Time Starter
2TS 2nd Time Starter (but not after FTS win)
3TS 3rd Time Starter (but not after FTS or 2TS win)
L1-3 Layoff of 1-3 Months
L4-8 Layoff of 4-8 Months
L9up Layoff of 9 or more months
2L1-3 2nd off Layoff of 1-3 Months
(but not after L1-3 win)
2L4-8 2nd off Layoff of 4-8 Months
(but not after L4-8 win)
2L9up 2nd off Layoff of 9 or more months
(but not after L9up win)
2S 2nd start after Shipping (but not after S win)
Shortenup (example 6F to 5F or 7F to 6F)
Stretchout (example 6.5F to 7F)
RtS Route to Sprint (includes 8F to 7F)
StR Sprint to Route (includes 7F to 8F, but not 7.5F to 8F on the Turf)
FBK Fastback – raced on less than 14 days rest
Dropdown Down in class (in ALW and MSW company includes races with same conditions with 50% decrease in purse value)
Up In Class Up in class (in ALW and MSW company includes races with same conditions with 50% increase in purse value)
RB Rightback, means next race after a win (except if that win was in last before being claimed)
DtoT Dirt to Turf
TtoD Turf to Dirt
No Change Same class and distance as last start and no other action angles in play. (2TS, 3TS, RB, OC, 2TT and 3TT are non-action angles)
FTT First Time Turf
2TT 2nd Start on the Turf
(but not after FTT win)
3TT 3rd Start on the Turf
(but not after FTT or 2TT win)
1st 3 OC First three starts off the Claim
(but not after 1st win in either 1stOC or 2ndOC)
1st 3 PTB First three starts after “Previously Trained By” but not after winning in 1st or 2nd try with the new trainer.
“Non-layoff” excludes Layoffs
“Non-shipping” excludes Shippers
"Plain" means a Non-layoff, Non-shipping start excluding the 1st or 2nd start off the layoff and the 1st or 2nd start after Shipping. For example: A Plain Stretchout means the horse’s last two races were at Tampa and were not of the Layoff or 2L variety and the horse is simply stretching out.
L2T, L4T, L5T, etc. refer to the Last 2, 4 or 5 seasons at Tampa (respectively).
(Subscribers: All single angle stats (along the left side of the page) as well as all multiple angle stats lacking an LXT designation are generally for the last three seasons at Tampa unless otherwise specified in the header or elsewhere.)