BetPTC.com Stakes Analysis
BetPTC.com / Weekend Stakes Preview / Ed Meyer
Pimlico Race #10 - The G3 Gallorette - 1 1/16 on the turf - 4:05 pm EDT
BetPTC.com Selections / #4 - Mitchell Road / #7 - In the Lee / #1 - I'm So Fancy
#4 Mitchell Road is a daughter of English Channel for Bill Mott. Joel Rosario is aboard and they've been off for three months. She is seeking her third straight and Rosario should send right to the front. She is 6 for 6 ITM and a solid candidate for the win. #7 In the Lee is a daughter of Tapit for Shug McGaughey. This is her 2nd start of the year and beaten chalk at Keeneland last out. Shug wins 26% coming back off a beaten favorite effort looking for payback. #1 I'm So Fancy comes from the barn of Arnaud Delacour with Florent Geroux in the saddle. She's been off for 8 months and gets first time Lasix where the trainer wins 31%. She comes in from the Curragh in Ireland and Delacour wins at a solid clip with fresh runners.
Race #11 - The G3 Chick Lang - 6f - 4:42 pm EDT
BetPTC.com Selections / #8 - Preamble / #7 - Pyron / #3 - Malpais
#8 Preamble comes in for the Rodolphe Brisset barn. 2nd start of the year and has Florent Geroux in the saddle. He is a perfect 3 for 3 and cuts back to 6f. The barn wins 19% with graded stakes and 23% second time off the shelf. He'll get a perfect stalking trip breaking from the outside. #7 Pyron hails from the barn of Steve Asmussen with his main rider Ricardo Santana in the saddle. This son of Candy Ride is a perfect 2 for 2 and ships in from Oaklawn stepping in class. Look for a stalking trip and Santana to hit the gas at the quarter pole. #3 Malpais comes from the Joe Sharp barn with Luis Saez in the driver's seat. Ships in from Charles Town turning back in distance as he looks for his 3rd straight win. This son of Hard Spun has wicked speed and may be tough to catch.
Race #12 - The G2 Dixie Stakes - 1 1/16 on the turf - 5:39 pm EDT
BetPTC.com Selections / #12 - Catholic Boy / #11 - Inspector Lynlee / #5 - Have At It
#12 Catholic Boy is a son of More Than Ready with Javier Castellano in the saddle. He's been off six months since the B/C Classic and sports two bullet works. He is 4 for 5 with wins on the sod and Castellano wins 24% on the grass. Look for a mid pack closing move around the turn. #11 Inspector Lynlee is a son of Lemon Drop Kid for Shug McGaughey. Jose Lezcano is the reinsman and exits a perfect prep winning at Aqueduct. He gets added ground and will launch a strong closing effort. #5 Have At It a son of Kitten's Joy for Christophe Clement. He's been vacationing the past five months and faced some tough guys last year. He's a perfect stalker and Jose Ortiz in the irons is a real plus when they turn for home.
Race #13 - The G1 Preakness Stakes- 1 3/16 miles dirt - 6:48 pm EDT
BetPTC.com Selections / #4 - Improbable / #2 - Bourbon War / #7 - Alwaysmining
#4 Improbable is a son of City Zip for Bob Baffert with Hall of Famer Mike Smith in the saddle. This closer was a beaten favorite in the eventful Derby and he's faced some of the toughest runners this year. He is 5 for 6 ITM lifetime and looks for a solid effort to rebound off his KY Derby performance. #2 Bourbon War is a son of Tapit and gets blinkers for trainer Mark Hennig. He's been off since for the G1 Florida Derby and this long range closer has Irad Ortiz in the saddle and he wins 22% with this type of runner. #7 Alwaysmining is a son of Stay Thirsty with Daniel Centeno in the irons. He has a quick turn of foot and plenty of early speed going six in a row. He won the Federico Tesio which has been a long time prep for this race.
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- AS OF WEEK #11 (May 11, 2019)
|Wk 3||Adrian E||12|
|Wk 3||Bernard H||13|
|Wk 3||Bill M||8|
|Wk 3||Brian N||10.5|
|Wk 3||Christopher L||11|
|Wk 3||Craig S||10|
|Wk 3||Dennis T||16.5|
|Wk 3||Donald N||8|
|Wk 3||Ellis S||13.5|
|Wk 3||Frank M||10|
|Wk 3||Gerald C||11.5|
|Wk 3||Gerald P, Jr.||9|
|Wk 3||Gerald P, Sr.||11.5|
|Wk 3||Glen S||12|
|Wk 3||Greg B||2|
|Wk 3||Gregory L||12.5|
|Wk 3||Joel P||4|
|Wk 3||John G||7|
|Wk 3||John S||12|
|Wk 3||Joseph S||3|
|Wk 3||Justin G||5|
|Wk 3||Kevin W||11|
|Wk 3||Kyle F||8|
|Wk 3||Lawrence K||10|
|Wk 3||Matthew B||11|
|Wk 3||Michael W||9|
|Wk 3||Mike E||10|
|Wk 3||Mitchell F||7|
|Wk 3||Patrick G||3|
|Wk 3||Rich M||8|
|Wk 3||Rick V||12|
|Wk 3||Robert S||8.5|
|Wk 3||Sammy R||12.5|
|Wk 3||Scott C.||14.5|
|Wk 3||Shaun B||7|
|Wk 3||Stephen W||12.5|
|Wk6||Steve W. Sr.||6|
|Players w/10pts+ bolded|
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a Primer from Sky Racing World
The following is a quick guide to help you to better understand the main differences between Australian racing and the rest of the world.
If you bet on horse number 1 don’t go looking for it to start from the inside gate. There is just as much chance that it could be drawn in post 16. In Australian races, the field is assembled in order of weight. The horse carrying saddlecloth number 1 always will have been assigned top weight or equal top weight. If there are 24 horses in a race, the horse carrying saddlecloth number 24 always will have been assigned the minimum or co-minimum (set-weight races notwithstanding). Once the horses are assembled in order of weight, the draw for post position takes place.
This will prove the biggest initial challenge to players here, primarily because of the differences in the way races are written. Because there are very few claiming races in Australia, many races are designated for horses which have won the same number of races. Most horses start out in maiden races. When they win, most will then come back in a Class 1 handicap, which means non-winners of two races lifetime .
The best pointer to use when handicapping an Australian race – given that many races in the past performance lines will read Hcp (Handicap) or Mdn (Maiden) – is to note the value (purse) of the race or the track class. All Australian tracks simulcasted are designated a “track class” of either (in order of quality) Metropolitan, Provincial, or Country. These designations can be found in the official past performances lines next to the track name as (m),(p), or (c).
Watching a Race
The style of Australian racing is more European than American. First, all races are on the turf. Racing is conducted both clockwise and counter-clockwise depending on the region of the country. A good trip plays an even greater part in the outcome of a race in Australia than it does here. There are several reasons for this – primarily, the larger fields, slower initial pace and tighter racing. When handicapping, pay attention to starting points and layouts of each track. The length of the stretch and tightness of the turns can differ greatly between tracks and have a definite impact on race tactics and outcome. The player looking to identify a track bias will have to do it on a day-to-day basis. Unlike tracks in other parts of the world, it is very rare for a racetrack to race on consecutive days.
Because of the larger average fields, there are now 24 betting interests available. Rarely will you see a field of 24 go to the post, the Emirates Melbourne Cup (GI) is an example of a race that allows for 24 runners. A few times a week, there will be races that allow for 20+ runners, one can usually find these on Tuesday/Friday nights where we feature racing from the top level metropolitan tracks in and around the major cities.
When watching the races, saddlecloth numbers can sometimes be difficult to see. It is best to identify your horse of interest by the color of the jockey’s silks. These colors are available in the program right above the past performance lines. As a bettor you will also find that races from Australia can take quite a bit longer to go official. Due to international simulcast regulations a more comprehensive review and verification process of the results is required before official payouts are made.
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