BetPTC.com Stakes Analysis
Horse Racing Analysis - Nov 21, 2020
Race #9 - The G-3 Red Smith - 1 3/8 miles turf - 3:45 - pm
BetPTC.com Selections / #8 - Ziyad / #10 - Red Knight / #5 - North Dakota
#8 Ziyad exits the G3 Sycamore at Keeneland and gets 2nd time Lasix since shipping in from Deauville (Fr). Graham Motion is the trainer with Manny Franco aboard this speedy son of Rock of Gibraltar (IRE). He may improve getting a shorter distance and Franco wins 17% with early running turf horses. #10 Red Knight is a long range closer who hails from the Bill Mott barn where he is 2 for 2 ITM at AQU. Jose Ortiz in the irons and returns from the G3 Sycamore win over Ziyad. Ortiz wins with 20% of his closing turf runners and should be a major player. #5 North Dakota also exits the G3 Sycamore as a fourth place finisher. Jose Lezcano in the irons for Shug McGaughey and they are making a 2nd off the layoff move and where the barn wins 18% and steps up in class. Use in your exotics.
Race#9 - The G3 Chilukki - 1 mile dirt - 5:06 pm
BetPTC.com Selections / #2 - Finite / #3 - Grand Clu Classe / #4 - Whoa Nellie
#2 Finite hails from the Steve Asmussen barn with Ricardo Santana in the saddle. She is 2 for 2 with wins at CD and exits a fast closing 2nd at Keeneland in the G2 Raven Run. Santana fits like a glove and she is making her 3rd off the layoff move where the barn wins 19%. #3 Grand Clu Classe is a speedy daughter of Bernardini for Bill Mott and Tyler Gaffalione. She exits a big effort in the G2 Raven Run at a price and should enjoy the one turn mile at CD. #4 Whoa Nellie is a daughter of Orb who is a solid stalker. Larry Jones gives a leg up to Joe Rocco Jr. and she is coming off a 9 month layoff since OP. She is 4 for 4 ITM at CD and Jones can get them ready to fire right off the shelf.
Race #2 - The G3 Native Diver - 1 1/8 miles dirt - 4:00 pm
BetPTC.com Selections / #3 - Royal Ship / #4 - Midcourt / #5 - Extra Hope
#3 Royal Ship is 3rd off the layoff since shipping in from Brazil for Richard Mandella who is winning 50% at the meet. This son of Midshipman is 8 for 9 ITM lifetime and takes a drop in class under the handling of Mike Smith coming off a 49 day rest. #4 Midcourt hails from the John Sheriffs' barn with Victor Espinoza. He is 4 for 4 ITM over the course and comes off a 56 day break away from the races. Mandella wins 22% coming off a layoff. #5 Extra Hope is a speedy colt from Dick Mandella's barn with Juan Hernandez in the saddle. He's coming off a 56 day rest and takes a big step up in class. Look for a quick break from the gate.
2nd Half of the Year Top 10 Leaderboard - as of 10/31/2020. Frank M. retained his lead by 1 point in the 2nd half and captured the $2,500 grand prize! Great job Frank. Dean K. and Stephen W., Jr. battled it out for the place spot, each earning 7 top ten finishes. However, Stephen won the tiebreaker because of a first place weekly finish. He wins the $500 2nd place prize.
See the Annual LB below, which is updated through week 20.
|Frank M||1||10||8||$2,500 Winner|
|Gerald P, Jr.||1||5|
|Gerald P, Jr.||1||6|
|Gerald P, Jr.||1||2||3|
|Gerald P., Sr.||1||6|
|Gerald P., Sr.||1||7||2|
|Stephen W, Jr.||1||10|
|Stephen W, Jr.||1||6|
|Stephen W., Jr.||1||1|
|Stephen W., Jr.||1||2|
|Stephen W., Jr.||1||5|
|Stephen W., Jr.||1||7|
|Stephen W., Jr.||1||8||7||$500 Runner-up (Wins Tiebreaker)|
|Steve W., Sr||1||2|
|Steve W., Sr.||1||8||2|
|Christopher L||12||Finalist via LB|
|Donald N||10||Finalist via LB|
|Mike E||10||Finalist via LB|
|Stephen W., Jr.*||8||Finalist|
|John S||5||Finalist via LB|
|Blake C||4||Finalist via LB|
|Ellis S||4||Finalist via LB|
|Gerald P. Jr.*||4||Finalist|
|Kevin W||4||Finalist via LB|
|Steve W., Sr*||4||Finalist|
|Gerald P., Sr.*||3||Finalist|
1st Half Top 10 Leaderboard Concluded
Things were tight on the first Top 10 Leaderboard of the season. Chris L. hung on for sole possession of 1st place and the $2,500 grand prize by finishing in the top 10 eight times. Formidable rivals Dean K. and Dennis T. tied for 2nd place with seven top 10 finishes, but Dennis T. won the tiebreaker for having a weekly first place finish. 1st place: $2,500. 2nd place: $500. A new opportunity arises, starting week 11.
The standings below are updated as of week 10, August 22, 2020.
|Christopher L||1||10||8||$2,500 Winner|
|Dennis T||1||10||7||$500 Runner-up (Wins Tiebreaker)|
|Gerald P. Jr.||1||4|
|Gerald P., Sr.||1||4|
|Stephen W., Jr||1||3|
|Steve W., Sr||1||1|
|Steve W., Sr||1||4|
By Glen S.
Are you a handicapper that is only a numbers guys or do you like to look at replays? My opinion, numbers do not tell you the entire picture. There are more numbers guys than replay guys. To get the value you need in this game, get on the side of the minority of horse players.
The replays are found on most track websites but BetPTC has the feature built in for you to view all tracks and all races shown on the website. I use it all the time and rarely not use it for every race I am capping.
What to look for (or not) when watching a replay:
-The start of the race, how did the horse break
-a speed horse needing to be near the lead, break poorly - very important
-a closer that usually is at the back - not as important
-Horses making middle moves
-outside losing ground on the turn - important
-outside in the back stretch - not as much because not losing lengths, but still good to see
-begins a move and has to check and loses their momentum - very important
-How much the jockey has to go to the whip
-If the jockey is already using the whip early, usually means the horse doesn't want to run and needs to get interested
-If no whip is used until the stretch or very little in the race, I like seeing this, horse is giving it his all and wants to run, game
-Finishing the race
-I like to see good gallop outs after the race, especially if the horse is stretching out after this last race
-Did the horse have nothing left at the wire with their win, or lots left, says the horse can move up in class if has some left
Why watch replays, here is another reason. Do not trust the comment lines. What I mean by this, the charter might not put the important part of the race in the limited comments line.
Here is a recent example: SEPTEMBER 6, 2020 - Century Mile Race #11 horse#2 Bang on. Please watch it.
Tell me if you agree with the comment line, Fractious, needed more.
Sept. 25 at CTM Race #8 Horse #5 Bang on. raced next time out. Watch this one.
Anyone not like $12.60 to win after the Sept. 6th replay?
There are many more of these out there. Just watch some races, make some stable notes and look out for some nice prices that the numbers guys don't get.
What's Your Betting Strategy?
Picking winners doesn't always mean you are making money at the races. Successful betting strategies usually does though.
Let's begin realizing every race is a little different. Why is that? Well there are underlays, overlays, big or small fields, where the race is in the race card to name a few. If you are a bettor that bets the same way and amount in each race, then you are behind the eight ball right way. STOP THAT!!
Your need to adjust your betting according to the race and how confident you are on the race. How and what should we do?
Here are some do's and don't; hopefully you are on more of the do's.
-Don't bet the same amount on each race, there is no way you like each race equally.
-Do step up a little more when you have a strong play, step down when there are to many unknowns
-Don't be one of those people that tell me they never bet favorites. Why is that when they win around 30% of the time?
-If you avoid favorites you have already lost on 30% of the races. Favorites have value at times, too.
-Do understand when to box horses and when to make it a wheel.
-You should figure out the percentage of the horses in question; if equal, box, if different wheel.
-Don't be that lazy handicapper that plays the caveman ticket in pick 4s or 5s.
-Most times you need to play multiple tickets - that saves you money and takes advantage of your handicapping ability.
Wager on the Breeders' Cup two day event at www.betptc.com
Here are a few other handicapping tips to set you up for success
-Do take advantage of all the new and improved handicapping tools out there to help you pick more winners.
-Don't be that handicapper that thinks they know it all and has bet the same for 20 years.
-Do the research and pick your spots and make yourself some money at the races.
a Primer from Sky Racing World.
Wager on Australian horse racing with BetPTC.com, "Racing's Best Kept Secret."
The following is a quick guide to help you to better understand the main differences between Australian horse racing and the rest of the world.
If you bet on horse number 1 don’t go looking for it to start from the inside gate. There is just as much chance that it could be drawn in post 16. In Australian races, the field is assembled in order of weight. The horse carrying saddlecloth number 1 always will have been assigned top weight or equal top weight. If there are 24 horses in a race, the horse carrying saddlecloth number 24 always will have been assigned the minimum or co-minimum (set-weight races notwithstanding). Once the horses are assembled in order of weight, the draw for post position takes place.
This will prove the biggest initial challenge to players here, primarily because of the differences in the way races are written. Because there are very few claiming races in Australia, many races are designated for horses which have won the same number of races. Most horses start out in maiden races. When they win, most will then come back in a Class 1 handicap, which means non-winners of two races lifetime .
The best pointer to use when handicapping an Australian race – given that many races in the past performance lines will read Hcp (Handicap) or Mdn (Maiden) – is to note the value (purse) of the race or the track class. All Australian tracks simulcasted are designated a “track class” of either (in order of quality) Metropolitan, Provincial, or Country. These designations can be found in the official past performances lines next to the track name as (m),(p), or (c).
Watching a Race
The style of Australian racing is more European than American. First, all races are on the turf. Racing is conducted both clockwise and counter-clockwise depending on the region of the country. A good trip plays an even greater part in the outcome of a race in Australia than it does here. There are several reasons for this – primarily, the larger fields, slower initial pace and tighter racing. When handicapping, pay attention to starting points and layouts of each track. The length of the stretch and tightness of the turns can differ greatly between tracks and have a definite impact on race tactics and outcome. The player looking to identify a track bias will have to do it on a day-to-day basis. Unlike tracks in other parts of the world, it is very rare for a racetrack to race on consecutive days.
Because of the larger average fields, there are now 24 betting interests available. Rarely will you see a field of 24 go to the post, the Emirates Melbourne Cup (GI) is an example of a race that allows for 24 runners. A few times a week, there will be races that allow for 20+ runners, one can usually find these on Tuesday/Friday nights where we feature racing from the top level metropolitan tracks in and around the major cities.
When watching the races, saddlecloth numbers can sometimes be difficult to see. It is best to identify your horse of interest by the color of the jockey’s silks. These colors are available in the program right above the past performance lines. As a bettor you will also find that races from Australia can take quite a bit longer to go official. Due to international simulcast regulations a more comprehensive review and verification process of the results is required before official payouts are made.