BetPTC.com Stakes Analysis
Horse Racing Analysis - June 6, 2020
The annual CASH IS KING Tournament begins June 20th. The final Saturday of the Cash Is King Warm-up contest is this Saturday, June 6th. Jump in and play.
by: Ed Meyer
Belmont Park Race #6 - The G2 Fort Marcy - 1 1/8 on the turf - 3:59 pm EDT
BetPTC.com Selections / #4 - Flop Shot / #7 - Devamani / #8 - Social Paranoia
#4 Flop Shot hails from the barn of Chad Brown with Javier Castellano in the irons. He gets first time Lasix and comes in nine months off the shelf. He ships over from France where Brown wins 30% with overseas runners making the move, and 5 for 5 ITM on the sod. He cuts back in distance, and his dam Dancequest (IRE) has 2 starters, 2 winners, and 2 turf winners to her credit. #7 Devamani comes from the Chad Brown barn with Joel Rosario in the saddle. He's a strong closer and just missed at Tampa Bay getting added distance to run today. He's had a three month layoff and the barn scores at a 30% win clip with rested runners. #8 Social Paranoia goes to post for Todd Pletcher and Manny Franco in the driver's seat. 3rd off the shelf yields a 22% win rate and he's 3 for 3 ITM at Belmont. Franco should have him in mid pack ready to strike. He is on an upward move and deserves a solid look.
Race #7 - The G3 Westchester - 1 1/16 - 4:32 pm EDT
BetPTC.com Selections / #9 - Code of Honor / #4 - Payne / #1 - Endorsed
#9 Code of Honor comes from the Shug McGaughey barn with John Velasquez getting the call. He's been off 7 months since the Breeders' Cup Classic and cuts back in distance on the drop down in class. He's a mid pack closer with a solid work tab looking to fire fresh and ready. #4 Payne enters in for the Chad Brown barn and Kendrick Carmouche getting the nod. He's been off for two months and looks for four in a row. An early style runner and Carmouche wins 17% with speedy type runners. He is 3 for 3 ITM at Belmont. #1 Endorsed hails from the Bill Mott barn with Joel Rosario in the saddle. They're winning 30% as a team. 2nd time off the layoff and an impressive win shipping in from OP. He draws the golden rail where it wins 23%.
Race #8 - The G3 Intercontinental - 7f on the turf - 5:04 pm EDT
BetPTC.com Selections / #5 - Newspaperofrecord / #7 - Regal Glory / #9 - Rose Flower
#5 Newspaperofrecord enters from the Chad Brown barn with Irad Ortiz in the irons. They are winning at a staggering 29% as a team. An early speed style runner and Ortiz scores 23% with these types of runners. Her dam Sunny Times (GB) has 4 starters, 3 winners, and 2 turf winners to her credit. She's been off 11 months since the G1 Belmont Oaks and may improve with a cut back in distance. #7 Regal Glory comes from the Chad Brown barn with Jose Ortiz in the saddle. A speedy sort who has been off for 7 months since the QE II at KEE. Been working well at Palm Meadows and could be dangerous on the pace. #9 Rose Flower comes in for Christophe Clement and Manny Franco gets the call. She is 1 for 1 at the distance and will come rolling late in the lane. Since shipping over from France she has been turning heads.
Race #9 - The G1 Carter - 7f - 5:36 pm EDT
BetPTC.com Selections / #10 - Mind Control / #11 - Vekoma / #5 - Network Effect
#10 Mind Control is a son of Stay Thirsty with John Velasquez in the irons. Looking for 4 in a row and been away from the races for three months. He stretches out to 7f and Johnny V fits like a glove for this mid pack stalker. #11 Vekoma is a son of Candy Ride with Javier Castellano in the driver's seat. He's a closer coming off a two month break where the barn scores 20% with freshened runners. His late punch is impressive down the lane. #5 Network Effect enters in for Chad Brown with Irad Ortiz getting the nod. This late runner is making the 3rd off the layoff run and Ortiz scores 23% with closers. When he and Brown team up good things happen as they win 29% together.
a Primer from Sky Racing World
The following is a quick guide to help you to better understand the main differences between Australian racing and the rest of the world.
If you bet on horse number 1 don’t go looking for it to start from the inside gate. There is just as much chance that it could be drawn in post 16. In Australian races, the field is assembled in order of weight. The horse carrying saddlecloth number 1 always will have been assigned top weight or equal top weight. If there are 24 horses in a race, the horse carrying saddlecloth number 24 always will have been assigned the minimum or co-minimum (set-weight races notwithstanding). Once the horses are assembled in order of weight, the draw for post position takes place.
This will prove the biggest initial challenge to players here, primarily because of the differences in the way races are written. Because there are very few claiming races in Australia, many races are designated for horses which have won the same number of races. Most horses start out in maiden races. When they win, most will then come back in a Class 1 handicap, which means non-winners of two races lifetime .
The best pointer to use when handicapping an Australian race – given that many races in the past performance lines will read Hcp (Handicap) or Mdn (Maiden) – is to note the value (purse) of the race or the track class. All Australian tracks simulcasted are designated a “track class” of either (in order of quality) Metropolitan, Provincial, or Country. These designations can be found in the official past performances lines next to the track name as (m),(p), or (c).
Watching a Race
The style of Australian racing is more European than American. First, all races are on the turf. Racing is conducted both clockwise and counter-clockwise depending on the region of the country. A good trip plays an even greater part in the outcome of a race in Australia than it does here. There are several reasons for this – primarily, the larger fields, slower initial pace and tighter racing. When handicapping, pay attention to starting points and layouts of each track. The length of the stretch and tightness of the turns can differ greatly between tracks and have a definite impact on race tactics and outcome. The player looking to identify a track bias will have to do it on a day-to-day basis. Unlike tracks in other parts of the world, it is very rare for a racetrack to race on consecutive days.
Because of the larger average fields, there are now 24 betting interests available. Rarely will you see a field of 24 go to the post, the Emirates Melbourne Cup (GI) is an example of a race that allows for 24 runners. A few times a week, there will be races that allow for 20+ runners, one can usually find these on Tuesday/Friday nights where we feature racing from the top level metropolitan tracks in and around the major cities.
When watching the races, saddlecloth numbers can sometimes be difficult to see. It is best to identify your horse of interest by the color of the jockey’s silks. These colors are available in the program right above the past performance lines. As a bettor you will also find that races from Australia can take quite a bit longer to go official. Due to international simulcast regulations a more comprehensive review and verification process of the results is required before official payouts are made.