BetPTC.com Stakes Analysis
by Ed Meyer
BetPTC.com / Weekend Stakes Preview / Ed Meyer
Race #12 - The G1 Haskell Invitational - 1 1/8 5:47 pm EDT
BetPTC.com Selections / #7 - Maximum Security / #5 - Mucho Gusto /#1 King for a Day
#7 Maximum Security hails from the Jason Servis barn who is winning at 29% at the meet. Luis Saez in the saddle and after the Derby DQ he had a nice prep in the Pegasus over the track and should be knocking heads on the lead. Look for a big effort today. #5 Mucho Gusto son of Mucho Macho Man for Bob Baffert who has won eight runnings of this race. He is 3rd off the layoff and 7 for 7 ITM lifetime. There is plenty of speed and Joe Talamo should be able to lay just off the main speed waiting to push the button. #1 King for a Day comes from the Todd Pletcher barn with John Velasquez in the irons. This son of Uncle Mo is making a 3rd off move and the barn scores at a 22% clip. The rail has been winning at a 24% clip and owns a sharp work coming into the race.
Race #4 - The G2 San Diego 1 1/16 6:30 pm EDT
BetPTC.com Selections / #1 Catalina Cruiser / #2 Core Beliefs / #4 Draft Pick
#1 Catalina Cruiser is a son of Union Rags for John Sadler with Joel Rosario in the driver's seat. 2nd off the layoff and the barn wins 16% on this move. He is a solid stalker with sparkling works. He'll be closer to the pace today and give them plenty of trouble down the lane. #2 Core Beliefs hails from the Peter Eurton barn with Flavien Prat in the saddle. Blinkers on and has been off for 54 days. He's a nice stalker who is dropping down a notch in from the G1 Gold Cup and cuts back to a kinder distance. #4 Draft Pick comes from the Peter Eurton barn with this son of Candy Ride. Martin Garcia in the irons and makes his 2nd start of the year. His work tabs look like he's gearing up for a top effort.
Race #8 - The G2 San Clemente - 1 mile on the turf - 8:30 pm EDT
BetPTC.com Selections / #3 - Mucho Unusual / #5 - Apache Princess / #8 - Stillwater Cove
#3 Mucho Unusual is a daughter of Mucho Macho Man for Tim Yakteen. Joel Rosario in the saddle making a 2nd off the layoff move where the barn wins 14%. This California bred should relish all of the speed to set up a good stalking trip. The faster they go the better she'll like it. #5 Apache Princess comes in for Keith Desormeaux with brother Kent Desormeaux in the saddle. They've been off two months shipping in from Golden Gate. Kent D rolled off three straight going 6 1/2f on the weeds and they usually take to the mile distance with gusto. Look for her late in the game. #8 Stillwater Cove rolls in from the Wesley Ward barn with a daughter of Quality Road. Victor Espinoza in the irons and he wins 24% on the turf. The barn has been winning 26% for the year.
Access the BetPTC Spot Plays every Friday evening for Saturday under the 'handicapping' page within your wagering account.
Stage 2 (Keeneland Prize) as of 3rd week through July 6, 2019.
|Wk1||Gerald P, Sr.||2|
|Wk1||Gerald P, Jr.||2|
Year-to-Date Leaderboard as of week 17 (June 22, 2019). This will be updated monthly.
|Annual CP Leaderboard for Tiebreaker Purposes|
|Gerald P, Jr.||14|
|Gerald P, Sr.||17.5|
|Steve W. Sr.||7|
AS OF WEEK #16 (June 15, 2019).
Dennis T. is our first Consistency Points champion in the Cash Is King XI tournament. Dennis locked up the grand prize of $3,000 in entry fees to the Saratoga Betting Challenges. Dennis got off to a very strong start and never looked back as he took the field gate to wire. Great job Dennis. I could see "23 points" as a record that stands for a while. Thank you to everyone who participated.
A new Consistency Points stage begins with Saturday, June 22. The overall winner will land a spot in the $3k Keeneland Fall Gamble in October.
|Stage 1 Consistency Points|
|Final Leaderboard - 2019|
|Gerald P, Sr.||16.5|
|Gerald P, Jr.||13|
|Steve W. Sr.||6|
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a Primer from Sky Racing World
The following is a quick guide to help you to better understand the main differences between Australian racing and the rest of the world.
If you bet on horse number 1 don’t go looking for it to start from the inside gate. There is just as much chance that it could be drawn in post 16. In Australian races, the field is assembled in order of weight. The horse carrying saddlecloth number 1 always will have been assigned top weight or equal top weight. If there are 24 horses in a race, the horse carrying saddlecloth number 24 always will have been assigned the minimum or co-minimum (set-weight races notwithstanding). Once the horses are assembled in order of weight, the draw for post position takes place.
This will prove the biggest initial challenge to players here, primarily because of the differences in the way races are written. Because there are very few claiming races in Australia, many races are designated for horses which have won the same number of races. Most horses start out in maiden races. When they win, most will then come back in a Class 1 handicap, which means non-winners of two races lifetime .
The best pointer to use when handicapping an Australian race – given that many races in the past performance lines will read Hcp (Handicap) or Mdn (Maiden) – is to note the value (purse) of the race or the track class. All Australian tracks simulcasted are designated a “track class” of either (in order of quality) Metropolitan, Provincial, or Country. These designations can be found in the official past performances lines next to the track name as (m),(p), or (c).
Watching a Race
The style of Australian racing is more European than American. First, all races are on the turf. Racing is conducted both clockwise and counter-clockwise depending on the region of the country. A good trip plays an even greater part in the outcome of a race in Australia than it does here. There are several reasons for this – primarily, the larger fields, slower initial pace and tighter racing. When handicapping, pay attention to starting points and layouts of each track. The length of the stretch and tightness of the turns can differ greatly between tracks and have a definite impact on race tactics and outcome. The player looking to identify a track bias will have to do it on a day-to-day basis. Unlike tracks in other parts of the world, it is very rare for a racetrack to race on consecutive days.
Because of the larger average fields, there are now 24 betting interests available. Rarely will you see a field of 24 go to the post, the Emirates Melbourne Cup (GI) is an example of a race that allows for 24 runners. A few times a week, there will be races that allow for 20+ runners, one can usually find these on Tuesday/Friday nights where we feature racing from the top level metropolitan tracks in and around the major cities.
When watching the races, saddlecloth numbers can sometimes be difficult to see. It is best to identify your horse of interest by the color of the jockey’s silks. These colors are available in the program right above the past performance lines. As a bettor you will also find that races from Australia can take quite a bit longer to go official. Due to international simulcast regulations a more comprehensive review and verification process of the results is required before official payouts are made.
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