BetPTC.com Stakes Analysis
by Ed Meyer
Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis for BetPTC.com / January 18th
Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis / January 18
by: Ed Meyer
Race #8 - The G-3 Toboggan - 7f - 3:55 pm EDT
BetPTC.com Selections / #2 - American Anthem / #4 - Nicodemus / #3 - Arch Cat
#2 American Anthem has been away for three months and was a beaten chalk at KEE last out. This son of Bodemeister comes from the barn of Danny Gargan. He has a solid work tab and the services of Manny Franco today. #4 Nicodemus is a son of Candy Ride for trainer Linda Rice winning 26% at the meet. Huge class dropper today and makes his first start of the year. He's a closer and cuts back in distance today. His bullet work shows all systems are go. #3 Arch Cat is a son of Arch for Daniel Velasquez. Ships in from Laurel and takes a hike up the class ladder. He rallied strong last out and has a new rider with Eric Cancel.
Race #10 - The G3 Louisiana Stakes - 1 1/16 - 5:21 pm EDT
BetPTC.com Selections / #1- My Boy Jack / #3 - Blended Citizen / #4 - Gun It
#1 My Boy Jack is a long range closer and been off three months. He switches from turf to dirt and has faced some tough guys in the past. The freshening and rail draw is a plus and Kent D should be motoring late in the lane. #3 Blended Citizen comes from the barn of Brad Cox who comes to post off as a beaten favorite in the $75,000 Tenacious. This son of Proud Citizen looks ready for a strong 2020 sporting a bullet work over the FG strip. #4 Gun It is 3rd off for trainer Steve Asmussen who wins 22% on this move. This son of Tapit is 3 for 4 ITM at FG and sports early speed. Santana wins 19% with his early runners.
Race #13 - The G-3 Lecomte - 1 1/16 - 6:55 pm EDT
BetPTC.com / #4 - Scabbard / #9 - Silver Slate / #1 - Finnick the Fierce
#4 Scabbard is a son of More Than Ready for Eddie Kenneally with Corey Lanerie in the irons. Been off two months since the BC Juvenile and the rider is 9 for 14 ITM this past week. He's a late runner who should benefit from an early pace. He had a brief layoff at Palm Meadows and may fire fresh off the rest. #9 Silver Slate comes in for Steve Asmussen and Ricardo Santana. They are shipping in from CD and exits an impressive race coming off slow and missed by a nose. His dam Supreme has 4 starts, and 4 wins to her credit winning 100% with her babies. #1 Finnick the Fierce has been off 49 days for trainer Rey Hernandez. He's been working well and draws the rail with Kentucky rider Sonny Leon. Look for him late in the lane at a big price.
a Primer from Sky Racing World
The following is a quick guide to help you to better understand the main differences between Australian racing and the rest of the world.
If you bet on horse number 1 don’t go looking for it to start from the inside gate. There is just as much chance that it could be drawn in post 16. In Australian races, the field is assembled in order of weight. The horse carrying saddlecloth number 1 always will have been assigned top weight or equal top weight. If there are 24 horses in a race, the horse carrying saddlecloth number 24 always will have been assigned the minimum or co-minimum (set-weight races notwithstanding). Once the horses are assembled in order of weight, the draw for post position takes place.
This will prove the biggest initial challenge to players here, primarily because of the differences in the way races are written. Because there are very few claiming races in Australia, many races are designated for horses which have won the same number of races. Most horses start out in maiden races. When they win, most will then come back in a Class 1 handicap, which means non-winners of two races lifetime .
The best pointer to use when handicapping an Australian race – given that many races in the past performance lines will read Hcp (Handicap) or Mdn (Maiden) – is to note the value (purse) of the race or the track class. All Australian tracks simulcasted are designated a “track class” of either (in order of quality) Metropolitan, Provincial, or Country. These designations can be found in the official past performances lines next to the track name as (m),(p), or (c).
Watching a Race
The style of Australian racing is more European than American. First, all races are on the turf. Racing is conducted both clockwise and counter-clockwise depending on the region of the country. A good trip plays an even greater part in the outcome of a race in Australia than it does here. There are several reasons for this – primarily, the larger fields, slower initial pace and tighter racing. When handicapping, pay attention to starting points and layouts of each track. The length of the stretch and tightness of the turns can differ greatly between tracks and have a definite impact on race tactics and outcome. The player looking to identify a track bias will have to do it on a day-to-day basis. Unlike tracks in other parts of the world, it is very rare for a racetrack to race on consecutive days.
Because of the larger average fields, there are now 24 betting interests available. Rarely will you see a field of 24 go to the post, the Emirates Melbourne Cup (GI) is an example of a race that allows for 24 runners. A few times a week, there will be races that allow for 20+ runners, one can usually find these on Tuesday/Friday nights where we feature racing from the top level metropolitan tracks in and around the major cities.
When watching the races, saddlecloth numbers can sometimes be difficult to see. It is best to identify your horse of interest by the color of the jockey’s silks. These colors are available in the program right above the past performance lines. As a bettor you will also find that races from Australia can take quite a bit longer to go official. Due to international simulcast regulations a more comprehensive review and verification process of the results is required before official payouts are made.