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Horse Racing Analysis - August 15, 2020
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Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis - August 15, 2020
by: Ed Meyer
Saratoga Race #8 - The $500,000 Saratoga Derby - 1 3/16 on the turf - 5:07 pm EDT
BetPTC.com Selections / #2 - Decorated Invader / #4 - Domestic Spending / #5 - Gufo
#2 Decorated Invader is a son of Declaration of War is seeking his 4th straight win and 3 for 3 ITM at the Spa. Joel Rosario in the saddle for Christophe Clement and 6 for 7 ITM on the turf. He's a mid pack stalker who should enjoy a trip close to the rail. #4 Domestic Spending hails from the Chad Brown barn with Irad Ortiz in the irons. He is a late runner with a wicked late punch. This is his 3rd off the layoff where the barn wins 20%. #5 Gufo comes in for Christophe Clement and John Velasquez. 2nd start off the layoff and seeks his 5th straight win. He'll come calling late in the lane.
Race #9 - The G-1 Alabama - 1 1/4 miles - 5:43 pm EDT
BetPTC.com Selections / #4 - Bonny South / #5 - Swiss Skydiver / #1 -Envoutante
#4 Bonny South hails from the Brad Cox barn and has the services of Irad Ortiz. This is her 2nd off a layoff, and the daughter of Munnings looks to stalk the pace. Ortiz wins 22% with stalkers and should get a shot turning for home. #5 Swiss Skydiver is going to take a good deal of action at the windows and should be the pace setter for Kenny McPeek and Tyler Gaffalione. She is 7 for 8 ITM lifetime and exits the G2 Bluegrass facing the boys as the beaten favorite. That 2nd place finish was strong and my only knock is the distance they are travelling today. If she gets loose it could be lights out quick. #1 Envoutante is a Ken McPeek runner and can just off the pace with Jose Ortiz. He may be one of the most patient riders in the country and wins 20% with type of runner. That bullet work is hard to look past when making final decisions.
Monmouth Park Race #10 - The $150,000 Pegasus - 1 1/16 miles - 5:12 pm EDT
BetPTC.com Selections / #5 - Pneumatic / #8 - Jesus' Team / #2 - Big City Bob
#5 Pneumatic comes in for Steve Asmussen and Joe Bravo. This son of Uncle Mo can stalk the speed and pounce. His race in the G1 Belmont was solid facing tougher company. He cuts back in distance and should be one of the major players. #8 Jesus' Team has the services of Paco Lopez who is winning 31% over the course. Look for a good turn of speed as this son of Tapiture cuts back in distance and drops down in class. #2 Big City Bob comes in for Jorge Duarte and Nik Juarez. He is 2 for 2 at Monmouth and can sit just off and make a move around the far turn. He's been off for 5 months and may come back sharp and ready making his 2nd start of the year.
Things are still tight on the first Top 10 Leaderboard of the season. Chris L. has taken sole possession of 1st place. Updated as of week 7, August 1, 2020. 1st place: $2,500. 2nd place: $500. This stage concludes in 3 weeks.
There may be a delay in posting the update through week 8. We appreciate your patience.
|Gerald P. Jr.||1||4|
|Gerald P., Sr.||1||4|
|Stephen W., Jr||1||3|
|Steve W., Sr||1||1|
|Steve W., Sr||1||4|
a Primer from Sky Racing World. Wager on Australian horse racing with BetPTC.com.
The following is a quick guide to help you to better understand the main differences between Australian racing and the rest of the world.
If you bet on horse number 1 don’t go looking for it to start from the inside gate. There is just as much chance that it could be drawn in post 16. In Australian races, the field is assembled in order of weight. The horse carrying saddlecloth number 1 always will have been assigned top weight or equal top weight. If there are 24 horses in a race, the horse carrying saddlecloth number 24 always will have been assigned the minimum or co-minimum (set-weight races notwithstanding). Once the horses are assembled in order of weight, the draw for post position takes place.
This will prove the biggest initial challenge to players here, primarily because of the differences in the way races are written. Because there are very few claiming races in Australia, many races are designated for horses which have won the same number of races. Most horses start out in maiden races. When they win, most will then come back in a Class 1 handicap, which means non-winners of two races lifetime .
The best pointer to use when handicapping an Australian race – given that many races in the past performance lines will read Hcp (Handicap) or Mdn (Maiden) – is to note the value (purse) of the race or the track class. All Australian tracks simulcasted are designated a “track class” of either (in order of quality) Metropolitan, Provincial, or Country. These designations can be found in the official past performances lines next to the track name as (m),(p), or (c).
Watching a Race
The style of Australian racing is more European than American. First, all races are on the turf. Racing is conducted both clockwise and counter-clockwise depending on the region of the country. A good trip plays an even greater part in the outcome of a race in Australia than it does here. There are several reasons for this – primarily, the larger fields, slower initial pace and tighter racing. When handicapping, pay attention to starting points and layouts of each track. The length of the stretch and tightness of the turns can differ greatly between tracks and have a definite impact on race tactics and outcome. The player looking to identify a track bias will have to do it on a day-to-day basis. Unlike tracks in other parts of the world, it is very rare for a racetrack to race on consecutive days.
Because of the larger average fields, there are now 24 betting interests available. Rarely will you see a field of 24 go to the post, the Emirates Melbourne Cup (GI) is an example of a race that allows for 24 runners. A few times a week, there will be races that allow for 20+ runners, one can usually find these on Tuesday/Friday nights where we feature racing from the top level metropolitan tracks in and around the major cities.
When watching the races, saddlecloth numbers can sometimes be difficult to see. It is best to identify your horse of interest by the color of the jockey’s silks. These colors are available in the program right above the past performance lines. As a bettor you will also find that races from Australia can take quite a bit longer to go official. Due to international simulcast regulations a more comprehensive review and verification process of the results is required before official payouts are made.