BetPTC.com Stakes Analysis
by Ed Meyer
KeenelandRace #9 - The G2 Raven Run - 7f - 5:30 pm EDT
BetPTC.com Selections / #1 - Royal Charlotte / #8 - First Star / #6 - Restless Rider
#1 Royal Charlotte is a daughter of Cairo Prince for Chad Brown with Tyler Gaffalione in the irons. She's been away for 49 days and is 1 for 1 ITM at Keeneland. Her only loss was to Covfefe who is BC bound and Brown is rolling at the meet winning 32%. Her victory in the G2 Prioress was impressive and I'm looking for a quick break from the rail. #8 First Star is a daughter of First Dude for Ron Ellis and Drayden Van Dyke. She is 2 for 2 and Ellis doesn't ship back this way much, but when he does it is usually for a good reason. She steps up in class and should stalk just off the lead. #6 Restless Rider comes in for Ken McPeek with B.J. Hernandez in the irons. She's been off 5 months since the Oaks and sports some sharp works coming into the race. I'm looking for an up close stalking trip and pick up the pieces if the pace falls apart.
BelmontRace#5 - The Empire Classic - 1 1/8 - 2:32 pm EDT
BetPTC.com Selections / #4 - Mr. Buff / #3 - Pat On the Back / #2 - Dynamax Prime
#4 Mr. Buff is a speedster from the John Kimmel barn with Junior Alvarado in the saddle. Exits the G1 Woodward coming off a 49 day layoff. He sports plenty of speed and Alvarado can be dangerous on the lead. #3 Pat On the Back is a son of Congrats making a 3rd off the layoff move for Jeremiah Englehart. Impressive winner of the G2 Kelso and drops back down in class and faces New York breds again. He's a mid pack stalker who is 11 for 11 ITM over the Belmont oval. #2 Dynamax is a son of Bluegrass Cat who is 7 for 9 ITM at Belmont. Manny Franco and Rob Atras team up and they have 2 wins from 3 starts the past two weeks. He's a closer and should come motoring late in the lane.
Race #10 Empire Distaff - 1 mile - 5:20 pm EDT
BetPTC.com Selections / #1- Newly Minted / #10 - Ratajkowski / #9 - Midnight Disguise
#1 Newly Minted comes in for Linda Rice and Jose Lezcano in the saddle. She's been off 57 days and is 1 for 1 at Belmont. She's a speedster from the rail and owns a bullet work coming into the race. Lezcano wins 19% for Rice and fits her like a glove. #10 Ratajkwoski is a speedball daughter of Drosselmeyer for Brian Lynch and Jose Ortiz. She seeks her 3rd straight win and 3 for 3 ITM over the course. She steps up in class and Ortiz wins 20% with early runners. #9 - Midnight Disguise is a daughter of Midnight Lute for Linda Rice. Joel Rosario has the call and she's 3 for 3 ITM at Belmont coming off a 4 month layoff. She'll come running late and with a field full of speed she could upset the apple cart.
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Stage 2 (Keeneland Prize) as of week 31 of the annual event. Through Saturday, Sept. 27, 2019.
The 2nd Consistency Leaderboard contest of 2019 was a real nail-biter. William D. led until the top of the stretch but then was collared by mulitple entrants. Going into the final week, William D., Frank M. and Kyle F. were tied for the lead with 18 points, but several other players were right behind them and also in position to win if they put up a big day on the final Saturday. Some of the best tournament players in the country were vying for the $3,000 Keeneland prize, but it would end up being Kyle F. who put up a monster score, earning 2 points, and winning this contest (within a contest) by 0.50 points. Congrats to Kyle F. on an outstanding job, and thank you to everyone who participated.
|Keeneland Consistency Leaderboard|
|as of the conclusion Sept. 27, 2019|
|Stephen W., Jr||19.5|
|Gerald P., Sr.||13.5|
|Gerald P., Jr.||9|
Year-to-Date Leaderboard as of Oct. 12, 2019. Only 2 weeks remain to improve your annual score. The top players who have not already qualified into the Nov. Finals will win their way in via the Annual Consistency Points LB.
|Annual CP Leaderboard as of 10/12/2019|
|Gerald P., Sr.||32|
|Gerald P., Jr.||23|
Consistency Points contest awarded a spot into the two Saratoga tournaments
|Stage 1 Consistency Points|
|Final Leaderboard - 2019|
|Gerald P, Sr.||16.5|
|Gerald P, Jr.||13|
|Steve W. Sr.||6|
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a Primer from Sky Racing World
The following is a quick guide to help you to better understand the main differences between Australian racing and the rest of the world.
If you bet on horse number 1 don’t go looking for it to start from the inside gate. There is just as much chance that it could be drawn in post 16. In Australian races, the field is assembled in order of weight. The horse carrying saddlecloth number 1 always will have been assigned top weight or equal top weight. If there are 24 horses in a race, the horse carrying saddlecloth number 24 always will have been assigned the minimum or co-minimum (set-weight races notwithstanding). Once the horses are assembled in order of weight, the draw for post position takes place.
This will prove the biggest initial challenge to players here, primarily because of the differences in the way races are written. Because there are very few claiming races in Australia, many races are designated for horses which have won the same number of races. Most horses start out in maiden races. When they win, most will then come back in a Class 1 handicap, which means non-winners of two races lifetime .
The best pointer to use when handicapping an Australian race – given that many races in the past performance lines will read Hcp (Handicap) or Mdn (Maiden) – is to note the value (purse) of the race or the track class. All Australian tracks simulcasted are designated a “track class” of either (in order of quality) Metropolitan, Provincial, or Country. These designations can be found in the official past performances lines next to the track name as (m),(p), or (c).
Watching a Race
The style of Australian racing is more European than American. First, all races are on the turf. Racing is conducted both clockwise and counter-clockwise depending on the region of the country. A good trip plays an even greater part in the outcome of a race in Australia than it does here. There are several reasons for this – primarily, the larger fields, slower initial pace and tighter racing. When handicapping, pay attention to starting points and layouts of each track. The length of the stretch and tightness of the turns can differ greatly between tracks and have a definite impact on race tactics and outcome. The player looking to identify a track bias will have to do it on a day-to-day basis. Unlike tracks in other parts of the world, it is very rare for a racetrack to race on consecutive days.
Because of the larger average fields, there are now 24 betting interests available. Rarely will you see a field of 24 go to the post, the Emirates Melbourne Cup (GI) is an example of a race that allows for 24 runners. A few times a week, there will be races that allow for 20+ runners, one can usually find these on Tuesday/Friday nights where we feature racing from the top level metropolitan tracks in and around the major cities.
When watching the races, saddlecloth numbers can sometimes be difficult to see. It is best to identify your horse of interest by the color of the jockey’s silks. These colors are available in the program right above the past performance lines. As a bettor you will also find that races from Australia can take quite a bit longer to go official. Due to international simulcast regulations a more comprehensive review and verification process of the results is required before official payouts are made.