BetPTC.com Stakes Analysis
by Ed Meyer
Race #7 - The G2 Del Mar Handicap - 1 3/8 on the turf - 8:00 pm EDT
BetPTC.com Selections / #5 -United / #6 - The Great Day / #4 - Marckie's Water
#5 United is a son of Giant's Causeway for Dick Mandella and Flavien Prat in the irons. This is his second off the layoff and looks for his 2nd win over the course. He's a long range closer and the added ground should not hurt his chances. He does step up in class and Mandella does an excellent job at spotting his horses when they're ready to climb the class ladder. His dam Indy Punch has 4 starters, 4 winners, and 2 turf winners to her credit. Prat is an excellent turf rider winning 27% on the greensward. #6 The Great Day makes his 3rd off the layoff shipping in from the G3 Arlington Handicap. He comes from the barn of Arnaud Delacour and he wins 29% 3rd time off the shelf. John Velasquez in town to ride and he's been working bullets in the morning. #4 Marckie's Water hails from the barn of Richard Baltas and Tiago Pereira in the irons. This is his 2nd off the layoff and ran a strong second in the G2 Eddie Read. His dam Russian River has 3 starters, 3 winners, and 3 turf winners. Look for a big late run at the top of the stretch.
Race #9 - The G1 Del Mar Oaks - 1 1/8 on the turf - 9:00 pm EDT
BetPTC.com Selections / #1 - Cambier Parc / #5 - Raymundos Secret / #14 - Hidden Message
#1 Cambier Parc is a daughter of Medaglia d' Oro shipping in from Belmont Park. She comes from the Chad Brown barn with John Velasquez in the saddle. She cuts ack in distance and is 4 for 5 ITM on the sod. A perfect stalker draws the rail spot and owns a sharp work to prepare. #5 Raymundos Secret comes from the Richard Baltas barn making her second off the layoff move. Florent Geroux has the assignment and wins 21% with turf runners as she looks to be a perfect 3 for 3. Steps up in class and gets added distance. Look for an upclose stalking ride. #14 Hidden Message ships in from Sandown Park for trainer Simon Callaghan. She is a daughter of Scat Daddy with Flavien Prat in the driver's seat. She gets first Lasix and the barn wins 30% on the medication change. Look for a mid pack stalking trip as Prat is an excellent judge of pace.
Race #10 - The G1 Pacific Classic - 1 1/4 - 9:30 pm EDT
BetPTC.com Selections / #5 -Seeking the Soul / #8 - Campaign / #3 - Pavel
#5 Seeking the Soul comes in for the Dallas Stewart barn with John Velasquez in the saddle. This son of Perfect Soul won the G2 Stephen Foster and Churchill runners have been doing very well on the west coast. He's a long range closer as Velasquez looks for two in a row. He always brings a solid run and expect him to get in the mix as they turn for home. #8 Campaign is a son of Curlin for John Sadler and Rafael Bejarano. This is his second off the layoff and he's 1 for 1 over the Del Mar strip. He turns back in distance and should be running late. #3 Pavel makes his 3rd off the shelf for trainer Doug O'Neill with Mario Gutierrez in the saddle. They ship in from Belmont and the barn wins 20% on making the trip. He is 3 for 8 ITM going the distance and was runner up in last year's edition of this race. He'll come calling around the far turn as they head for home.
Access the BetPTC Spot Plays every Friday evening for Saturday under the 'handicapping' page within your wagering account.
Stage 2 (Keeneland Prize) as of week ___ through Saturday, _______.
The Stage 2 Consistency Points Leaderboard was off by one week's scoring when last posted. It is currently being fixed and will be posted no later than Monday, August 19th. We apologize for the delay.
To Be Posted
Year-to-Date Leaderboard as of Aug 3, 2019). This will be updated monthly.
|Annual CP Leaderboard as of 8/3/2019|
|Gerald P, Sr.||22|
|Gerald P, Jr.||17|
|Steve W. Sr.||7|
AS OF WEEK #16 (June 15, 2019).
Dennis T. is our first Consistency Points champion in the Cash Is King XI tournament. Dennis locked up the grand prize of $3,000 in entry fees to the Saratoga Betting Challenges. Dennis got off to a very strong start and never looked back as he took the field gate to wire. Great job Dennis. I could see "23 points" as a record that stands for a while. Thank you to everyone who participated.
A new Consistency Points stage begins with Saturday, June 22. The overall winner will land a spot in the $3k Keeneland Fall Gamble in October.
|Stage 1 Consistency Points|
|Final Leaderboard - 2019|
|Gerald P, Sr.||16.5|
|Gerald P, Jr.||13|
|Steve W. Sr.||6|
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a Primer from Sky Racing World
The following is a quick guide to help you to better understand the main differences between Australian racing and the rest of the world.
If you bet on horse number 1 don’t go looking for it to start from the inside gate. There is just as much chance that it could be drawn in post 16. In Australian races, the field is assembled in order of weight. The horse carrying saddlecloth number 1 always will have been assigned top weight or equal top weight. If there are 24 horses in a race, the horse carrying saddlecloth number 24 always will have been assigned the minimum or co-minimum (set-weight races notwithstanding). Once the horses are assembled in order of weight, the draw for post position takes place.
This will prove the biggest initial challenge to players here, primarily because of the differences in the way races are written. Because there are very few claiming races in Australia, many races are designated for horses which have won the same number of races. Most horses start out in maiden races. When they win, most will then come back in a Class 1 handicap, which means non-winners of two races lifetime .
The best pointer to use when handicapping an Australian race – given that many races in the past performance lines will read Hcp (Handicap) or Mdn (Maiden) – is to note the value (purse) of the race or the track class. All Australian tracks simulcasted are designated a “track class” of either (in order of quality) Metropolitan, Provincial, or Country. These designations can be found in the official past performances lines next to the track name as (m),(p), or (c).
Watching a Race
The style of Australian racing is more European than American. First, all races are on the turf. Racing is conducted both clockwise and counter-clockwise depending on the region of the country. A good trip plays an even greater part in the outcome of a race in Australia than it does here. There are several reasons for this – primarily, the larger fields, slower initial pace and tighter racing. When handicapping, pay attention to starting points and layouts of each track. The length of the stretch and tightness of the turns can differ greatly between tracks and have a definite impact on race tactics and outcome. The player looking to identify a track bias will have to do it on a day-to-day basis. Unlike tracks in other parts of the world, it is very rare for a racetrack to race on consecutive days.
Because of the larger average fields, there are now 24 betting interests available. Rarely will you see a field of 24 go to the post, the Emirates Melbourne Cup (GI) is an example of a race that allows for 24 runners. A few times a week, there will be races that allow for 20+ runners, one can usually find these on Tuesday/Friday nights where we feature racing from the top level metropolitan tracks in and around the major cities.
When watching the races, saddlecloth numbers can sometimes be difficult to see. It is best to identify your horse of interest by the color of the jockey’s silks. These colors are available in the program right above the past performance lines. As a bettor you will also find that races from Australia can take quite a bit longer to go official. Due to international simulcast regulations a more comprehensive review and verification process of the results is required before official payouts are made.
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