BetPTC.com Stakes Analysis
Horse Racing Analysis - Sept. 26, 2020
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Horse Racing Graded Stakes Analysis - 9/26/20
by: Ed Meyer
Belmont Park Race #9 - The G2 Vosburgh - 6f - 5:14 pm
BetPTC.com Selections / #5 - Firenze Fire / #6 - Engage / #2 - Funny Guy
#5 Firenze Fire is 5 for 7 ITNM at Belmont for Kelly Breen and Jose Lezcano. He cuts back from 7f and sports a bullet work. He should stalk just off the pace and move around the sweeping turn. Lezcano wins 21% with his stalking type runners and trainer Kelly Breen brings them ready. #6 Engage hails from the Steve Asmussen barn with Jose Ortiz in the saddle. He is 3 for 3 ITM at Belmont and will come running late. Ortiz has been aboard and should fit well in this compact field. #2 Funny Guy is a son of Big Brown for John Terranova and Joel Rosario. This is his 3rd off the layoff and exits a game effort as the beaten chalk in the G1 Forego. Look for a late run as they turn for home.
Churchill Downs Race #9 - The G3 AckAck - 1 mile - 4:53 pm
BetPTC.com Selections / #1 - Warrior's Charge / #8 - Ebben / #9 - Bankit
#1 Warrior's Charge hails from the Brad Cox barn. Florent Geroux has the call and sports a good turn of speed. This is 2nd off the layoff, and cuts back in distance. He draws the rail and should be the one to beat today. This son of Munnings may be getting his late year campaign in order. #8 Ebben comes in from the Steve Margolis barn with Corey Lanerie in the irons. He is 6 for 10 ITM at CD and seeks his 4th straight win. He's a stalker and Lanerie knows the track better than many. #9 Bankit is a stone cold closer for Steve Asmussen and Ricardo Santana. This is his 3rd off the shelf shipping in from CT and this New York bred will come running late in the race. He may be an excellent addition to your exotics.
Santa Anita Race #10 - The G1 Awesome Again - 1 1/8 - 8:00 pm
BetPTC.com Selections / #5 - Maximum Security / #2 - Improbable / #4 - Midcourt
#5 Maximum Security exits off his 6th straight win from last year's Derby. Bob Baffert brings this son of New Year's Day with Luis Saez in the irons. He is versatile but will be right there when the gate breaks. His record is a testament to his ability for this monster and should handle this field. #2 Improbable hails from the Baffert barn with Drayden Van Dyke. He seeks three in a row and exits off a win in the G1 Whitney. He will lay just off the leaders. #4 Midcourt is a son of Midnight Lute with Victor Espinoza in the saddle. He has very good speed but will have his hands full. He loves SA going 6 for 8 ITM lifetime over the course.
2nd Half of the Year Top 10 Leaderboard - as of 9/19/2020. See the Annual LB below.
|Gerald P, Jr.||1||2||1|
|Stephen W., Jr.||1||1|
|Stephen W., Jr.||1||2||2|
|Steve W., Sr||1||2||1|
|Annual Points Leaderboard as of 9/17/2020|
|Stephen W., Jr.*||3||Finalist|
|Steve W., Sr*||3||Finalist|
|Gerald P. Jr.*||2||Finalist|
|Gerald P., Sr.||1|
1st Half Top 10 Leaderboard Concluded
Things were tight on the first Top 10 Leaderboard of the season. Chris L. hung on for sole possession of 1st place and the $2,500 grand prize by finishing in the top 10 eight times. Formidable rivals Dean K. and Dennis T. tied for 2nd place with seven top 10 finishes, but Dennis T. won the tiebreaker for having a weekly first place finish. 1st place: $2,500. 2nd place: $500. A new opportunity arises, starting week 11.
The standings below are updated as of week 10, August 22, 2020.
|Christopher L||1||10||8||$2,500 Winner|
|Dennis T||1||10||7||$500 Runner-up (Wins Tiebreaker)|
|Gerald P. Jr.||1||4|
|Gerald P., Sr.||1||4|
|Stephen W., Jr||1||3|
|Steve W., Sr||1||1|
|Steve W., Sr||1||4|
a Primer from Sky Racing World.
Wager on Australian horse racing with BetPTC.com, "Racing's Best Kept Secret."
The following is a quick guide to help you to better understand the main differences between Australian horse racing and the rest of the world.
If you bet on horse number 1 don’t go looking for it to start from the inside gate. There is just as much chance that it could be drawn in post 16. In Australian races, the field is assembled in order of weight. The horse carrying saddlecloth number 1 always will have been assigned top weight or equal top weight. If there are 24 horses in a race, the horse carrying saddlecloth number 24 always will have been assigned the minimum or co-minimum (set-weight races notwithstanding). Once the horses are assembled in order of weight, the draw for post position takes place.
This will prove the biggest initial challenge to players here, primarily because of the differences in the way races are written. Because there are very few claiming races in Australia, many races are designated for horses which have won the same number of races. Most horses start out in maiden races. When they win, most will then come back in a Class 1 handicap, which means non-winners of two races lifetime .
The best pointer to use when handicapping an Australian race – given that many races in the past performance lines will read Hcp (Handicap) or Mdn (Maiden) – is to note the value (purse) of the race or the track class. All Australian tracks simulcasted are designated a “track class” of either (in order of quality) Metropolitan, Provincial, or Country. These designations can be found in the official past performances lines next to the track name as (m),(p), or (c).
Watching a Race
The style of Australian racing is more European than American. First, all races are on the turf. Racing is conducted both clockwise and counter-clockwise depending on the region of the country. A good trip plays an even greater part in the outcome of a race in Australia than it does here. There are several reasons for this – primarily, the larger fields, slower initial pace and tighter racing. When handicapping, pay attention to starting points and layouts of each track. The length of the stretch and tightness of the turns can differ greatly between tracks and have a definite impact on race tactics and outcome. The player looking to identify a track bias will have to do it on a day-to-day basis. Unlike tracks in other parts of the world, it is very rare for a racetrack to race on consecutive days.
Because of the larger average fields, there are now 24 betting interests available. Rarely will you see a field of 24 go to the post, the Emirates Melbourne Cup (GI) is an example of a race that allows for 24 runners. A few times a week, there will be races that allow for 20+ runners, one can usually find these on Tuesday/Friday nights where we feature racing from the top level metropolitan tracks in and around the major cities.
When watching the races, saddlecloth numbers can sometimes be difficult to see. It is best to identify your horse of interest by the color of the jockey’s silks. These colors are available in the program right above the past performance lines. As a bettor you will also find that races from Australia can take quite a bit longer to go official. Due to international simulcast regulations a more comprehensive review and verification process of the results is required before official payouts are made.