BetPTC.com Stakes Analysis
by Ed Meyer
BetPTC.com - Weekend Stakes Preview
By: Ed Meyer
Churchill Downs Race #8 - The G-3 Locust Grove - 1 1/16 - 4:21 pm EDT
BetPTC.com Selections / #7 - Go Google Yourself / #3 - Mylady Curlin / #2 - Moonlit Garden
#7 Go Google Yourself comes to post for Paul McGee and B.J. Hernandez in the irons. She is 2nd off the layoff and the filly loves the course going 5 for 7 ITM. That was a solid prep winning the Groupie Doll at Ellis and Hernandez is no stranger to the CD winner's circle. Look for a solid stalking trip. #3 Mylady Curlin is a daughter of Curlin for trainer Brad Cox and Shaun Bridgmohan. 3rd off the layoff looking for her 6th straight win. The Cox barn wins 30% off a last race win and sports a nice morning workout. She'll be on the hook or just off the leader. #2 Moonlit Garden is a daughter of Malibu Moon for Brad Cox and Florent Geroux. 3rd off the layoff where Cox wins 27% and was a beaten chalk in the Groupie Doll. Flo will have her in a good spot and hit the accelerator around the far turn.
Race #9 - The G-2 Pocahantas - 1 1/16 - 4:53 pm EDT
BetPTC.com Selections / #6 - Morning Gold / #3- Portrait / #1 - Shadilee
#6 Morning Gold is a daughter of Morning Line for Kenny McPeek and Jose Ortiz. She gets first Lasix and moves from the turf to the dirt. Look for Ortiz to come out swinging as he wins 19% with his early style runners. McPeek wins 19% with first time Lasix. Add them up and you may have a good plan for heading to the windows. #3 Portrait comes to post for Brad Cox and Shaun Bridgmohan. She had a commanding win at EP last out after coming off the turf prior. She has the look of a dangerous stalker moving up the ladder. Cox wins 28% of the time off a maiden win. #1 Shadilee goes postward for Mike Maker and Julien Leparoux. Impressive maiden victory at the Spa and was claimed for $75,000 for the Maker barn. They win 15% off a claim and she sports a smoking work in Louisville. You have to use in your exotics.
Race #10 - The G-3 Iroquois - 1 1/16 - 5:26 pm EDT
BetPTC.com Selections / #6 - Flute Maker / #4 - Rowdy Yates / #2 - Letmeno
#6 Flute Maker is a son of Sky Mesa for Ken McPeek and Jose Ortiz. Ultra impressive closing win at Saratoga and looks to kick it up a notch moving up the ladder. If his last race is any indication he'll fit in nicely with the field. #4 Rowdy Yates comes in for Steve Asmussen and Tyler Baze. A speedster who won the Ellis Juvenile and comes back to CD where he broke his maiden and 2nd in the Bashford Manor. Catch him if you want to beat him. #2 Letmeno comes from the Ian Wilkes barn with Calvin Borel in the irons. He's a closer who got shuffled back a bit trying to catch Rowdy Yates last out. He has some nice works at CD and Borel knows his way to the winner's circle for big races.
Access the BetPTC Spot Plays every Friday evening for Saturday under the 'handicapping' page within your wagering account.
Stage 2 (Keeneland Prize) as of week 28 of the annual event. Through Saturday, Sept. 7, 2019
|Keeneland Consistency Leaderboard|
|as of September 7, 2019|
|Gerald P, Sr.||8.5|
|Gerald P., Jr.||7|
Year-to-Date Leaderboard as of Aug 31, 2019. This will be updated monthly.
|Annual CP Leaderboard as of 8/31/2019|
|Gerald P., Jr.||18|
|Gerald P., Sr.||24|
|Steve W. Sr.||7|
AS OF WEEK #16 (June 15, 2019).
Dennis T. is our first Consistency Points champion in the Cash Is King XI tournament. Dennis locked up the grand prize of $3,000 in entry fees to the Saratoga Betting Challenges. Dennis got off to a very strong start and never looked back as he took the field gate to wire. Great job Dennis. I could see "23 points" as a record that stands for a while. Thank you to everyone who participated.
A new Consistency Points stage begins with Saturday, June 22. The overall winner will land a spot in the $3k Keeneland Fall Gamble in October.
|Stage 1 Consistency Points|
|Final Leaderboard - 2019|
|Gerald P, Sr.||16.5|
|Gerald P, Jr.||13|
|Steve W. Sr.||6|
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a Primer from Sky Racing World
The following is a quick guide to help you to better understand the main differences between Australian racing and the rest of the world.
If you bet on horse number 1 don’t go looking for it to start from the inside gate. There is just as much chance that it could be drawn in post 16. In Australian races, the field is assembled in order of weight. The horse carrying saddlecloth number 1 always will have been assigned top weight or equal top weight. If there are 24 horses in a race, the horse carrying saddlecloth number 24 always will have been assigned the minimum or co-minimum (set-weight races notwithstanding). Once the horses are assembled in order of weight, the draw for post position takes place.
This will prove the biggest initial challenge to players here, primarily because of the differences in the way races are written. Because there are very few claiming races in Australia, many races are designated for horses which have won the same number of races. Most horses start out in maiden races. When they win, most will then come back in a Class 1 handicap, which means non-winners of two races lifetime .
The best pointer to use when handicapping an Australian race – given that many races in the past performance lines will read Hcp (Handicap) or Mdn (Maiden) – is to note the value (purse) of the race or the track class. All Australian tracks simulcasted are designated a “track class” of either (in order of quality) Metropolitan, Provincial, or Country. These designations can be found in the official past performances lines next to the track name as (m),(p), or (c).
Watching a Race
The style of Australian racing is more European than American. First, all races are on the turf. Racing is conducted both clockwise and counter-clockwise depending on the region of the country. A good trip plays an even greater part in the outcome of a race in Australia than it does here. There are several reasons for this – primarily, the larger fields, slower initial pace and tighter racing. When handicapping, pay attention to starting points and layouts of each track. The length of the stretch and tightness of the turns can differ greatly between tracks and have a definite impact on race tactics and outcome. The player looking to identify a track bias will have to do it on a day-to-day basis. Unlike tracks in other parts of the world, it is very rare for a racetrack to race on consecutive days.
Because of the larger average fields, there are now 24 betting interests available. Rarely will you see a field of 24 go to the post, the Emirates Melbourne Cup (GI) is an example of a race that allows for 24 runners. A few times a week, there will be races that allow for 20+ runners, one can usually find these on Tuesday/Friday nights where we feature racing from the top level metropolitan tracks in and around the major cities.
When watching the races, saddlecloth numbers can sometimes be difficult to see. It is best to identify your horse of interest by the color of the jockey’s silks. These colors are available in the program right above the past performance lines. As a bettor you will also find that races from Australia can take quite a bit longer to go official. Due to international simulcast regulations a more comprehensive review and verification process of the results is required before official payouts are made.