BetPTC.com Stakes Analysis
Horse Racing Analysis - April 10, 2021
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Keeneland Race #9 - The G-3 Lexington Stakes - 1 1/16 miles dirt - 5:30 pm
BetPTC.com Selections - #2 - Swiftsure / #7 - Proxy / #5 - Unbridled Honor
#2 Swiftsure is a lightly raced son of Uncle Mo for Steve Asmussen with Irad Ortiz in the irons. He is 2 for 2 lifetime with one start in 2020 and 2021. He has a speedy style and with Ortiz in the saddle could very easily settle just off the speed. His dam Island Saint is stakes placed and has one starter with one winner to her credit. Ortiz wins 24% with early type runners and should be in the catbird seat turning for home in the short stretch. #7 Proxy is a speedy son of Pulpit for Mike Stidham and John Velasquez. He is 5 for 6 ITM and should flash good early foot. If you take a look at his PP's you'll see his best races were on Lasix. That is my only question keeping him out of the top spot; but with a bullet work, he'll take plenty of action at the windows. Demand better than the morning line odds before making any decisions. #5 Unbridled Honor is a late runner for the Todd Pletcher barn with Julien Leparoux getting the nod. His last race in the G2 Tampa Bay Derby was better than it looked. He finished up strong and ships in from TBD where the Pletcher barn wins 24% with new surroundings. He may be blooming at the right time and the bullet work catches my attention over the deep Palm Beach course.
Race#10 - The G-1 Jenny Wiley - 1 1/16 on the turf - 6:03 pm
BetPTC.com Selections / #1 - Micheline / #4 - Etoile / #2 - Tamahere
#1 Micheline hails from the Mike Stidham barn with red hot rider Luis Saez in the irons. She cuts back in distance and will be rolling late in the lane. Her victory in the G2 Hillsborough at TBD was strong last out and she is making her second start of the year with a bullet work to prepare. #4 Etoile is coming off a five month layoff for Chad Brown and Javier Castellano in the irons. Her first start of the year and should be closing late as she shortens in distance. Castellano wins 29% with Brown and shipping in off a long layoff fits Chad Brown well as he wins 30% with freshened runners. #2 Tamahere makes her first start of the year for Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz. A late runner who has done well with shipping to the states. Ortiz is a very strong closing runner and wins 28% with his turf runners.
Race #12 - The G-1 Arkansas Derby - 1 1/8 miles dirt - 7:41 pm
BetPTC.com Selections / #5 - Concert Tour / #3 - Hozier / #1 Super Stock
#5 Concert Tour hails from the Baffert barn with Joel Rosario in the irons. He is a perfect 3 for 3 and should be a major pace player. He won his only start at OP and has a bullet work to tighten the screws moving forward. Rosario has been riding very well wherever he hangs his tack and has a 57% win clip teaming up with Bob Baffert. #3 Hozier is a son of Pioneer of the Nile for Bob Baffert and Martin Garcia. He ran a game 2nd against the favorite in here and will be running late. The bullet work and added distance make him dangerous. #1 Super Stock is a mid pack stalker for Steve Asmussen. This is his 2nd start of the year and will be a factor in the exotics. They switch back to Ricardo Santana who is the Asmussen go to rider. The extra half furlong should help his causes drawing the rail and saving ground when the real running gets going.
By Glen S.
Are you a handicapper that is only a numbers guys or do you like to look at replays? My opinion, numbers do not tell you the entire picture. There are more numbers guys than replay guys. To get the value you need in this game, get on the side of the minority of horse players.
The replays are found on most track websites but BetPTC has the feature built in for you to view all tracks and all races shown on the website. I use it all the time and rarely not use it for every race I am capping.
What to look for (or not) when watching a replay:
-The start of the race, how did the horse break
-a speed horse needing to be near the lead, break poorly - very important
-a closer that usually is at the back - not as important
-Horses making middle moves
-outside losing ground on the turn - important
-outside in the back stretch - not as much because not losing lengths, but still good to see
-begins a move and has to check and loses their momentum - very important
-How much the jockey has to go to the whip
-If the jockey is already using the whip early, usually means the horse doesn't want to run and needs to get interested
-If no whip is used until the stretch or very little in the race, I like seeing this, horse is giving it his all and wants to run, game
-Finishing the race
-I like to see good gallop outs after the race, especially if the horse is stretching out after this last race
-Did the horse have nothing left at the wire with their win, or lots left, says the horse can move up in class if has some left
Why watch replays, here is another reason. Do not trust the comment lines. What I mean by this, the charter might not put the important part of the race in the limited comments line.
Here is a recent example: SEPTEMBER 6, 2020 - Century Mile Race #11 horse#2 Bang on. Please watch it.
Tell me if you agree with the comment line, Fractious, needed more.
Sept. 25 at CTM Race #8 Horse #5 Bang on. raced next time out. Watch this one.
Anyone not like $12.60 to win after the Sept. 6th replay?
There are many more of these out there. Just watch some races, make some stable notes and look out for some nice prices that the numbers guys don't get.
What's Your Betting Strategy?
Picking winners doesn't always mean you are making money at the races. Successful betting strategies usually does though.
Let's begin realizing every race is a little different. Why is that? Well there are underlays, overlays, big or small fields, where the race is in the race card to name a few. If you are a bettor that bets the same way and amount in each race, then you are behind the eight ball right way. STOP THAT!!
Your need to adjust your betting according to the race and how confident you are on the race. How and what should we do?
Here are some do's and don't; hopefully you are on more of the do's.
-Don't bet the same amount on each race, there is no way you like each race equally.
-Do step up a little more when you have a strong play, step down when there are to many unknowns
-Don't be one of those people that tell me they never bet favorites. Why is that when they win around 30% of the time?
-If you avoid favorites you have already lost on 30% of the races. Favorites have value at times, too.
-Do understand when to box horses and when to make it a wheel.
-You should figure out the percentage of the horses in question; if equal, box, if different wheel.
-Don't be that lazy handicapper that plays the caveman ticket in pick 4s or 5s.
-Most times you need to play multiple tickets - that saves you money and takes advantage of your handicapping ability.
Wager on the Breeders' Cup two day event at www.betptc.com
Here are a few other handicapping tips to set you up for success
-Do take advantage of all the new and improved handicapping tools out there to help you pick more winners.
-Don't be that handicapper that thinks they know it all and has bet the same for 20 years.
-Do the research and pick your spots and make yourself some money at the races.
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Sha Tin vs Happy Valley Turf Courses
Handicapping Angles with Dick Powell
In the 2019-2020 racing season, favorites did better on the Sha Tin turf course. There were 418 races run over it and they won a healthy 32.06%. Happy Valley only saw 24.37% favorites win.
This season , September 6 through December 20, while the difference has not been nearly as dramatic, it is still statistically significant. The favorite has won 30.94% of the turf races run at Sha Tin so far this season while only 25.21% of the favorites have been able to get home at Happy Valley.
There appears to be two main reasons for this. First, the wider Sha Tin turf course has different configurations with fewer turns. Sha Tin is able to race 1000m races down the straightaway while Happy Valley’s race around a turn. Sha Tin is able to race 1200m races around one turn while Happy Valley’s race around a short right-hand elbow then a tight turn. And, the Sha Tin turf course enables 1400m, 1600m and 1800m races to be run around only one, sweeping turn. Turf races at Sha Tin are run around fewer turns and they are wider than Happy Valley’s course.
And, second, the home straight at Sha Tin is 430m long while the home straight at Happy Valley is between 312m and 338m depending on the rail placement. Horses can overcome troubled trips better at Sha Tin than they can at Happy Valley where the finish line comes up fast.
a Primer from Sky Racing World.
Wager on Australian horse racing with BetPTC.com, "Racing's Best Kept Secret."
The following is a quick guide to help you to better understand the main differences between Australian horse racing and the rest of the world.
If you bet on horse number 1 don’t go looking for it to start from the inside gate. There is just as much chance that it could be drawn in post 16. In Australian races, the field is assembled in order of weight. The horse carrying saddlecloth number 1 always will have been assigned top weight or equal top weight. If there are 24 horses in a race, the horse carrying saddlecloth number 24 always will have been assigned the minimum or co-minimum (set-weight races notwithstanding). Once the horses are assembled in order of weight, the draw for post position takes place.
This will prove the biggest initial challenge to players here, primarily because of the differences in the way races are written. Because there are very few claiming races in Australia, many races are designated for horses which have won the same number of races. Most horses start out in maiden races. When they win, most will then come back in a Class 1 handicap, which means non-winners of two races lifetime .
The best pointer to use when handicapping an Australian race – given that many races in the past performance lines will read Hcp (Handicap) or Mdn (Maiden) – is to note the value (purse) of the race or the track class. All Australian tracks simulcasted are designated a “track class” of either (in order of quality) Metropolitan, Provincial, or Country. These designations can be found in the official past performances lines next to the track name as (m),(p), or (c).
Watching a Race
The style of Australian racing is more European than American. First, all races are on the turf. Racing is conducted both clockwise and counter-clockwise depending on the region of the country. A good trip plays an even greater part in the outcome of a race in Australia than it does here. There are several reasons for this – primarily, the larger fields, slower initial pace and tighter racing. When handicapping, pay attention to starting points and layouts of each track. The length of the stretch and tightness of the turns can differ greatly between tracks and have a definite impact on race tactics and outcome. The player looking to identify a track bias will have to do it on a day-to-day basis. Unlike tracks in other parts of the world, it is very rare for a racetrack to race on consecutive days.
Because of the larger average fields, there are now 24 betting interests available. Rarely will you see a field of 24 go to the post, the Emirates Melbourne Cup (GI) is an example of a race that allows for 24 runners. A few times a week, there will be races that allow for 20+ runners, one can usually find these on Tuesday/Friday nights where we feature racing from the top level metropolitan tracks in and around the major cities.
When watching the races, saddlecloth numbers can sometimes be difficult to see. It is best to identify your horse of interest by the color of the jockey’s silks. These colors are available in the program right above the past performance lines. As a bettor you will also find that races from Australia can take quite a bit longer to go official. Due to international simulcast regulations a more comprehensive review and verification process of the results is required before official payouts are made.