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Star Japanese mare Lyx Gracieux won the middle-distance championship of their spring, the Takarazuka Kinen, and did it posting the sort of figure that would win many Winx-free Cox Plates, but the betting hasn't missed her and it's hard to see what the betting has missed about her with prices inside $4.00 in early markets.
Her positives are that she has run ratings that are in or around the likely winning zone for this Cox Plate in all bar one run in the last two years and she has been able to take that form on the road, running well twice in Hong Kong.
The market still looks to be giving her all the credit she deserves for that, with several others capable of hitting similar levels, and one of those, Mystic Journey, looks a good each way bet in our eyes.
She was dragged back off a crawl last time, and did what she could from where she was, but this time she draws to land in her preferred stalking role and get every chance to show her best - which we know is very good.
Twelve months on from the blistering performance that skyrocketed her towards the top of the Australian racing tree she looks well set-up for a big peak again and that peak should have her right in the finish regardless of what the others bring.
Our bet of the day comes earlier in the day with the Gerald Ryan-trained Villami looking really well placed in the fourth on the card.
She was a touch flat when third at the same course and distance last time but was only beaten by a couple of high quality fillies in a deeper race than what she faces here.
From the wide draw she should go on with it this time and take control of the race and if she can return to her Sydney peak the rest of these will do well to keep up.
She's tight in the betting but with a good jock, good map and the most talent she looks the sort of favourite that we can get stuck into.
THE MELBOURNE MAIL
Bet Of The Day: Race 4 #3 Villami @ $2.25
Each Way Play: Race 9 #12 Mystic Journey @ $7.00
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